Denmark’s defense intelligence service has assessed that Russia is likely to intensify hybrid attacks against NATO member states in the coming months, and that there is a low but growing risk Moscow could launch a limited military attack against one or several NATO countries bordering Russia, according to a nine-page threat report published Sept. 24.
The report from the Danish Defence Intelligence Service (DDIS) said Russia will carry out more frequent attacks against the West and NATO, with greater consequences for targeted countries than in the past. It said these could include cyber attacks that cripple societal functions as well as sabotage attacks that carry a high risk of casualties.
The assessment said a limited military attack could take the form of isolated strikes by long-range weapons on infrastructure vital to supporting Ukraine. The report noted Russia might claim such weapons only struck NATO territory because they were jammed by Ukraine.
DDIS found no indication the Kremlin is planning an outright invasion of a NATO state, and that such an operation would likely require a minimum of six months of planning to build up the required forces. The assessment also said there is no prospect of Russian forces accomplishing any significant breakthrough in Ukraine over the next six months.
In response to the assessment, U.S. Air Force Gen. Alexus Grynkewich, NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe, said “we should be calm and confident” that the alliance can handle any threat posed by Moscow. Speaking in a phone interview with Reuters on Sept. 24 en route to a change-of-command ceremony in Norfolk, Virginia, Grynkewich called a limited Russian attack on NATO territory “unlikely but something that we can’t rule out.”
Asked about the possibility that Russian President Vladimir Putin might see an opportunity to strike NATO, Grynkewich said: “Absolutely not. He better not try it on my watch,” adding that NATO was well positioned to defend every inch of its territory.
Grynkewich said Washington would continue to provide “critical but more limited capabilities” to NATO as Europeans take on a greater role in defending the continent. He said there was no predetermined outcome regarding how many of the approximately 80,000 U.S. troops currently based in Europe would remain, or which capabilities might relocate.
Grynkewich said a string of recent incidents were concerning, including an attempted drone attack at Germany’s Leipzig/Halle Airport and a Russian ship firing flares toward a Danish military helicopter.
Separately, Spanish daily El Mundo reported Sept. 23 that the CIA had warned European countries of a suspected Russian plot to launch Gerbera-type drones from commercial vessels in the Mediterranean, potentially targeting Spain, France or Italy. The report, based on testimony from an anonymous Lithuanian intelligence source, said the drones have a wingspan of 2.5 meters, a maximum range of 600 kilometers, and could be concealed in containers and catapult-launched from international waters. The El Mundo report has not been independently corroborated.
Sources: Defense News · Military.com