WASHINGTON — October has recorded the highest number of attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz since the U.S.-Iran war began in late February, according to international monitors and analysts.
There have been at least 27 attacks on commercial ships so far in October, according to the International Maritime Organization. A separate count by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy’s Noam Raydan puts the total at 28 attacks this month, a surge not seen since the U.S. and Israel launched their attack on Iran in late February. A list of attacks compiled by USNI News counted 22 in March, plus attacks on an offshore rig and two tugs.
Despite the attacks, ships continue to transit the strait. There were 104 non-Iranian-linked vessels that sailed through between Oct. 5-11, during which there were 12 attacks, according to USNI News. About 400 merchant ships traveled through the strait in the seven days preceding a Friday video update from CENTCOM commander Adm. Brad Cooper, who said U.S. forces assisted in the transit of 100 million barrels of crude oil over the same period. More than 1.3 billion barrels of crude have transited the waterway in recent months, he said.
The threat continued Wednesday, when an unknown projectile struck a tanker in the Persian Gulf near Bukha, Oman, according to the U.K. Maritime Trade Operations Center.
U.S. and Israeli officials are reportedly weighing renewed strikes on Iran. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth met with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel this week to discuss new strikes, The New York Times reported Thursday, citing unidentified U.S. officials. Israeli jets flew over Syria and Iraq on Monday, going as far as the Iranian border, according to Axios, which cited unidentified U.S. and Israeli officials. Israel described the action as a training exercise aimed at deterring Iran from attacking ahead of scheduled elections.
The U.S. is discreetly reducing its troop presence at bases in the Middle East due to threats from Tehran and the Iran-backed Houthi militant group in Yemen, CBS News reported Wednesday. The State Department has ordered nonessential U.S. Embassy personnel and their families to leave Saudi Arabia. A CENTCOM spokesman did not directly address the reported drawdown, saying the command regularly moves service members and assets to optimize readiness.
Cooper characterized the attacks as signs of growing desperation by Tehran’s Revolutionary Guard, which has been hit hard by U.S. operations to enforce a maritime blockade against Iranian ports. That effort has prevented Iran from exporting at least $25 billion in crude oil, money typically used to finance military operations, proxy groups and terrorism, Cooper said. The U.S. also has frozen about $350 million in cryptocurrency, further straining the country’s economy and leaving Iran unable to pay Revolutionary Guard troops, he said.
Raydan said the attacks persist despite U.S. efforts to protect ships and facilitate the flow of oil, an indication that Iranian forces are trying to target as many vessels as possible. “This is a clear sign that while Iran really cannot completely hold the movement of vessels, Iran is capable, Iranian forces in the strait are capable of sustaining disruption,” she said.
The Makin Island Amphibious Ready Group was heading west across the Pacific Ocean after leaving San Diego earlier this month. Both that group and the aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt will reportedly deploy to the Middle East by the end of November, adding 9,000 to 10,000 sailors and Marines to the region. About 50,000 U.S. troops are deployed in the Middle East.
Sources: Military.com · USNI News